How HouseCanary's Propensity Model Helped Drive Listings and Pipeline Growth for ROC Real Estate

Client Overview

ROC Real Estate is a dynamic real estate team operating in multiple markets, including Phoenix, AZ, and Albuquerque, NM. Led by Ramon Casaus, the team is known for its proactive approach to lead generation, outbound calling, and data-driven marketing strategies. ROC Real Estate sought a more efficient way to identify high-propensity home sellers and increase their pipeline of quality seller leads.

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Challenge

Traditional lead generation methods were time-consuming, expensive, and often ineffective. Agents were spending significant time cold calling homeowners with little indication of their likelihood to sell. The team needed a way to prioritize their outreach and maximize their efforts on homeowners who were most likely to list their properties in the near future.

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Solution: HouseCanary’s Propensity Model

HouseCanary provided ROC Real Estate with a propensity model designed to identify homeowners with the highest probability of listing their properties. By analyzing property data, market trends, and behavioral indicators, the model scored homeowners based on their likelihood to sell.

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Implementation & Strategy

1. Data calibration & optimization:
   • ROC Real Estate received a dataset of 5,000 records spread over only five zip codes in their Phoenix and Albuquerque markets.
   • Initially, the team focused on the highest-propensity scores (99%) but found that many of these homeowners had already listed or recently purchased homes, confirming the model’s accuracy.
   • They adjusted their strategy, targeting homeowners with scores in the 87–95% range, which provided a more actionable dataset.‍
2. Outbound calling & lead nurturing:
   • Agents used Brivity CRM to manage lead tracking and follow-ups.
   • They conducted structured cold calls, ensuring each contact received five to six follow-ups, filtering out bad numbers and updating their CRM with verified contacts.‍
   • Dialers were used to streamline outreach, ensuring high call volume and efficiency.
   • High-quality leads were funneled into Brivity’s home valuation reports for ongoing engagement.‍
3. Marketing & database growth:
   • Once initial calls were completed, leads were moved into a long-term marketing funnel.
   • Over 175 high-quality contacts were integrated into their system for future engagement.
   • Agents prioritized outreach to homeowners actively engaging with property value reports and market insights.

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Results

• Four confirmed listings directly attributed to the propensity model.
• Two luxury listings valued at $1.2M and $1.5M generated from the data.
• 175 high-quality leads moved into their long-term database for future conversion.
• Projected 10% conversion rate on nurtured leads over a 12-month period.
• Improved efficiency in outbound calling, allowing agents to focus on high-potential sellers rather than random cold calls.

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Key Takeaways

• Data-driven approach increases efficiency: Targeting high-propensity homeowners allowed agents to focus on meaningful conversations, improving productivity.
• Long-term nurturing yields results: Instead of relying solely on immediate transactions, the team leveraged email marketing and follow-ups to build relationships and convert leads over time.
• Markets & agent engagement impact success: Success rates varied by market and agent approach. In Phoenix, where agents were more aggressive with outbound calls, results were stronger compared to Albuquerque, where outreach was more grassroots.
• Potential for expansion: ROC Real Estate believes they could scale their efforts with additional agents, given their current results. However, the balance between call volume and agent morale remains a consideration.

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What ROC Real Estate Had to Say

According to Ramon Casaus, the propensity model provided a level of accuracy and lead quality that was unmatched by other tools they had tried:

“I have not come across a better way to have high-quality conversations with owners, with sellers, and put them into a database with complete information that you now are continuing your marketing towards. I haven’t found something better since I’ve been in real estate.”

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He also highlighted how the model was instrumental in securing luxury listings and high-value conversations:

“I’ve had new agents book $2.3 million listing appointments, and I went on it with them. I mean, come on. This is crazy from a phone call.”

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Future Plans

ROC Real Estate is actively evaluating ways to scale their outreach efforts, potentially hiring additional agents to increase call volume. They are also exploring opportunities to integrate mortgage lending data, using loan officers to generate both buy-side and sell-side leads.

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Get started.