Inflation Levels Sit Above Targets as Further Rate Hikes Remain a Possibility

Marking the seventh consecutive week increase, mortgage rates continued to rise in October as the Federal Reserve worked towards curbing inflation. As a result, low housing market activity persisted, aligning with the trend we’ve seen throughout 2023. Historically low inventory has exacerbated the situation, driven by listing volume lagging far behind contract volume. It is also worth noting that total available inventory has likely reached its peak for the year, with that peak being the lowest observed since 2020, potentially leading to further price increases in 2024. With market activity at a near standstill and rates expected to remain elevated for the foreseeable future, potential buyers will likely continue to favor the rental market.

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Jeremy Sicklick, Co-founder and Chief Executive Officer of HouseCanary, commented:

“In October, the housing market continued to face low activity, following persistent rate hikes and low inventory. Compared to 2022, our data shows a decrease of 14.9% in net new listing volume and a 3.1% decrease in contract volume, putting further pressure on inventory. Interest rate shock is having the biggest impact on net new listing volume, as potential buyers continue to grapple with uncertain market conditions and turn towards the rental market. With inflation rates still sitting above the Federal Reserve’s stated target of 2%, there is a possibility of rates reaching 8% or more, putting would-be buyers under further pressure.”

Key Takeaways:

• Over the last 52 weeks, 2,429,785 net new listings were placed on the market, and 2,579,509 properties went under contract. This represents a decrease of 23.7% and 17.9%, respectively.

• For the month of October 2023, 202,101 net new listings were placed on the market, and 231,086 properties went under contract. This represents a decrease of 14.9% and 3.1%, respectively, versus October 2022.

• The decrease in net new listings was driven by a 14.8% decrease in new listing volume as well as a 14.3% decrease in removals compared to October 2022.

• Total inventory is down 2.7% from the same period in 2022, and down 0.8% from 2021. Inventory remains very low from a historical perspective.

• Median days on market stands at 40. This is down 7.0% from where it was one year prior at 43 days on market. 

• The median price of all single-family rental listings in the US was $2,550. On a year-over-year basis, the median price of all single-family rental listings is up 2.2%. Month-over-month, the median price of single-family rental listings is down 1.0%.