Inventory Levels Gradually Rise, Approaching Pre-COVID Levels, Latest HouseCanary Report Shows

Throughout July, the housing market experienced yet another inventory increase, which is now approaching pre-COVID levels. Net new listing and contract volume trended down near multi-year seasonal lows and as a result, median days on the market increased year-over-year. 

The summer housing market remained quiet in July, as we had forecasted at the beginning of the month. With both net new listings and contract volume slightly down in the month compared to the prior year period, we can assume that this is still a lingering outcome from the stagnant housing market, as a result of affordability pressures for prospective buyers. Conversely, we see an uptick in net new listings when looking at the 52-week period, which was up 4.3% from the same period last year. We can presume that this continued moderate increasing of inventory levels from a multi-year standpoint creates the likelihood of driving inventory levels back up to pre-Covid levels.

Looking ahead in terms of buying costs, the Fed did not announce interest cuts this week, but experts are anticipating the Fed to start cutting rates in September. If realized, we can expect that the lowering of interest rates will result in the easing of the housing market. This can alleviate prospective buyers from the pressures of costly home-purchasing prices and financial commitments, propelled by peak mortgage rates.  We will keep a close eye and continue to watch for cooling mortgage rates in the back half of the year.

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Jeremy Sicklick, Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer of HouseCanary, commented:

“The summer housing market remained quiet in July, as we had forecasted at the beginning of the month. With both net new listings and contract volume slightly down in the month compared to the prior year period, we can assume that this is still a lingering outcome from the stagnant housing market, as a result of affordability pressures for prospective buyers. Conversely, we see an uptick in net new listings when looking at the 52-week period, which was up 4.3% from the same period last year. We can presume that this continued moderate increasing of inventory levels from a multi-year standpoint creates the likelihood of driving inventory levels back up to pre-Covid levels.

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Looking ahead in terms of buying costs, the Fed did not announce interest cuts this week, but experts are anticipating the Fed to start cutting rates in September. If realized, we can expect that the lowering of interest rates will result in the easing of the housing market. This can alleviate prospective buyers from the pressures of costly home-purchasing prices and financial commitments, propelled by peak mortgage rates.  We will keep a close eye and continue to watch for cooling mortgage rates in the back half of the year.”

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 Key Takeaways:

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• For the month of July 2024, 270,821 net new listings were placed on the market which represents a 2.9% decrease versus July 2023.  Over the last 52 weeks there have been 2,634,376 net new listings placed on the market. This represents a 4.3% increase versus the year prior.  Broken out by price bins, the $0-$200k bin has accounted for 12.2% of net new listings over the last 52 weeks, the $200k-$400k bin at 38.0% of net new listings, the $400k-$600k bin at 23.9% of net new listings, the $600k-$1m bin at 16.7% of net new listings, and the $1m+ bin at 9.2% of net new listings.

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• The total volume of net new listings over the last 52 weeks for the $0-$200k and $200k-$400k price bins are down 7.2% and 0.6%, while $400k-$600k, $600k-$1m and $1m+ price bin are up 6.0%, 14.3% and 24.9%, compared to the year prior.  For the month of July 2024 net new listing volume for the $0-$200k and $200k-$400k price bins are down 13.8%, and 8.2%, respectively, while the $400k-$600k, $600k-$1m and $1m+ price bins are up 0.2%, 7.5% and 11.3%, respectively, compared to July 2023.

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• For the month of July 2024 there were 284,636 listings that went under contract nationwide which is a 4.0% increase versus July 2023.  Over the last 52 weeks, 2,578,325 properties have gone into contract.  This represents a 4.2% decrease versus the year prior.  Broken out by price bins, the $0-$200k bin has accounted for 13.2% of total contract volume over the last 52 weeks, the $200k-$400k bin at 38.6% of total contract volume, the $400k-$600k bin at 23.6% of total contract volume, the $600k-$1m bin at 16.2% of total contract volume, and the $1m+ bin at 8.4% of total contract volume.

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• The total volume of listings going into contract over the last 52 weeks for the $0-$200k, $200k-$400k and $400k-$600k price bins are down 10.5%, 7.2% and 4.1%, while $600k-$1m and $1m+ price bin are up 1.8% and 11.3%, compared to the year prior. For the month of July 2024, contract volume for the $0-$200k, $200k-$400k, $400k-$600k, $600k-$1m and $1m+ price bins are up 0.6%, 2.6%, 4.4%, 7.0% and 8.3%, respectively, compared to July 2023.

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• For the week ending July 26th 2024, the median price of all single-family listings in the US was $456,988 and the median closed price was $439,839.  On a year-over-year basis, the median price of all single-family listings is up 3.1% and the median price of closed listings is up 6.3%.  Month-over-month, the median price of single-family listings is down 1.1% and the median price of closed listings is up 0.3%.

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• For the week ending July 26th 2024, the median price of all single-family rental listings in the US was $2,623. On a year-over-year basis, the median price of all single-family rental listings is up 0.1%. Month-over-month, the median price of single-family rental listings is down 0.9%.

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 More in the full report.

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Methodology

The Market Pulse Report is an ongoing review of proprietary data and insights from HouseCanary’s nationwide platform, covering 22 listing-derived metrics and comparing data between July 2023 and July 2024.

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